Price Speculation


#22

I really think a breakout is looming.

We have multiple double bottoms, one on the 50-DMA and the other on the 1.618

I find it very ironic that price action has used the golden ratio as support/pivot around mainnet launch.

image
image


#23

My previous posts have focused too much on dollar analysis. This is a misleading indicator of value for crypto in my opinion. USD, especially USDT(Tether) cause massive market distortions.

Aeternity’s bullish indicators lie in Ethereum markets.

Lets start with the basics…Volume.
I check coinmarketcap daily and typically what i see dominating AE volume are Gate.IO(Margin Trading) Tether markets and DragonEx ETH markets. These two markets control pretty much most of the daily trading volume for AE.
Gate.Io is extremely sketchy i suggest you look into it. (South Korean exchange registered in McLean, Virginia)

DragonEx is probably where the smart money/market makers are.

Bullish indicator 1 - Positive healthy uptrend.

Bullish Indicator 2 - Two Reverse Head & Shoulders Pattern

Bullish Indicator 3 - Main-net launch and daily candle closed above trendline during market wide turmoil

Bullish Indicator 4 - Market Indicators are over-sold

Hope this post helps with some market sentiment.


#24

Looks like main-net launched underwhelmingly (which is good)

AE/ETH

AE/BTC


we put a double bottom in on the daily with the RSI confirming with bullish divergence.
On the lower time frames looks like there was a tiny pump

AE/USD


#25

So what is going on with the latest price action? Æternity is the 2nd worst performing asset (after bcash) on the top 50 list the last 30 days (down 65 %) and 91 % down from the top. Are we heading towards 0?

Does anyone have any theories on what is causing this? Bad mainnet launch? Lack of migration? No exchanges supporting mainnet? Small developer community? Inflation rate?

You have to expect to have some losses, but this is getting ridiculous, a fall of more than 90 % will be hard to make up for.


#27

I dont think we’re going to zero but there could be a little more pain.

Price looks to be breaking down beyond the descending channel. The USD market is already oversold(since mid november) so really smart money would actually be buying on the real cheap and quietly.

When we zoom in on the lower time frames we see buy volume kicking in:

Lets shoot over to ETH:

Same story with price breaking down from trend channel.

We look over at some of the order books on the exchanges (gate):


we see buy support and not much selling.

Overall its important to remember charts like $AMZN and how your mind cant even comprehend $6 USD shares.

one day we wont even comprehend $0.36USD AE.


#28

Don’t think there’s any point attempting to do technicals in this market. I am waiting for things to stabilize some, then I’ll probably buy more. I like this project a lot, and with the ridiculous amount of talent in the team I see the potential of a bright future. Hope that the developer community grows in the coming months as that is crucial for survival.


#29

Technical analysis will be useful when the basic situation stable.
In AE, there are many risk, like the project fail, 51%, etc. so technical analysis will become useless.


#30

Without TA you wouldn’t be able to spot the reversal signals and get ahead of the crowd. If you’re waiting for things to “settle down” you’re already late to the party.


#31

Micro party, maybe. Macro party, nobody has any clue.


#32

#33

ONE PICTURE IS MORE THEN 1000 WORDS! And yes I got more then one Glühwein. :joy::rofl::sweat_smile::joy::rofl::sweat_smile:


#34

As indicated above, " there’s any point attempting to do technicals in this market." so this post will probably fall on deaf ears because TA isnt valued on this forum.

But anyways…

I’m calling a bottom on AE as indicated by the massive buy candle on the daily. only up from here.


#35

I did not mean that TA has no merit. The only problem is that everything depends a lot on what’s happening outside of this particular asset. I see you are also using USD which doesn’t necessarily make a lot of sense.

Please tell me: what happens if bitcoin drops another 40 %?

So far every single of your predictions have been way off, that has to count for something?


#36

it does make sense when the majority of AE’s volume is coming from gate.io Tether market.

If you have followed this thread, i actually comment on your concerns about analyzing the USD market.

Also EVERYONE HAS BEEN WRONG


#37

Yes I know but I still don’t think it makes sense since everything is so insanely reliant on bitcoin. If bitcoin crashes, AE crashes further against bitcoin which makes $ value go even more down. Also, the volume is insanely low these days compared to when it was most active. TA makes “works” within a market structure, the problem is that the structure changes ALL the time.

Hehe, yes, everyone (at least close to) have been wrong. I asked the question a while back when AE was a few $ (between 1 and 3, can’t remember), if bitcoin fell below 6k, would AE crash all the way down to 60 cent? Turned out even my pessimistic view was 50 % off.

There are so many uncertainties when it comes to price that no one has any clue since it is dependent on so many external factors. I think it is funny/sad that a project like æternity that has actually delivered has gotten so punished in the market. It was i the top 20s at some point and now it’s 50. I also fear that it might get worse before it gets better. When large exchanges start supporting the coin there is a danger of huge selling pressure from the miners.

Besides all the external factors that affect the price I have two big worries about the future of æternity (and I think and hope that both will get solved with time):

  1. network health. 100 % controlled by China and one pool with 70 %.
  2. adoption. Many other projects have larger, more ambitious business plans. I think what is needed here in addition to all the small projects going on is to have a large, serious platform migrate from Ethereum or similar. This is of course impossible without a healthy and proven network.

edit: But I hope you are right on your predictions :wink:


#38

This project has been attacked since day one (AE being the largest parity hack back during the initial ICO) someone somewhere really really wants this project to fail.


#39

Again, what happens when bitcoin drops?.. :rofl:


#40

I knew it was a matter of time before you would comment but I’d wait for the daily candle to close before saying anything.

AE price all markets has remained pretty much unchanged. Actually tons of support here so i’m standing by this being a bottom for AE.


#41

Sorry I just couldn’t help it. Yes, we will wait and see. Exiting times ahead for the entire crypto market, wondering if we are close to seeing a bitcoin bottom soon.

But do you mean support against USD or BTC?


#42

Both: